Interesting comment by USA Admiral Gilday about China

SC Maintenance said:
Switching the conversation to an economic standpoint Japan and South Korea are high tech leaders, they designed stuff and shipped elsewhere to build - so their demographics didn't hurt them as much - up till now at least.

China's economy is built on foreign investment and cheap labor, and there loosing both at the same time. They have been trying to expand their capability but so far haven't shown any ability other than to copy whatever someone else made. Possibly that changes but it hasn't yet.
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With this point in mind Japan will have the edge as they have adopted automation and robots to a greater extent than China. That is in part because of the older demographics.

A typical Japanese restaurant, you order your food at a kiosk machine and pay with smartphone or card. A robot delivers the food. Some places have robotic cooks for certain tasks.
 
“The context of the thread was in China's ability to successfully invade Taiwan.”

Whats the possibility of the happening ?
 
Dave Hess said:
“The context of the thread was in China's ability to successfully invade Taiwan.”

Whats the possibility of the happening ?
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Well that is the question isn't it. Leaders/ dictators tend to start wars when things at home aren't going so well...
 
A few comments.

Essentially there are two ways for a nation to build wealth. Export more than you import, or steal/plunder. On the other hand, when one imports more then they export- they will become poor. This is law of nature- there are no workarounds. I have not read Sun Tzu in years, but I imagine he has some principal that aligns with weaking an enemy economically so they can't fight.

Of note about stealing- The Comac C919 was certified for flying just 54 days ago- yet no press coverage. Why not????? The C919 was built with massive amounts of stolen intellectual property. There is a paper trail that identifies no less than 12 individuals that stole the IP. I am sure there are hundreds more suspects, and significantly more IP stolen than identified. Yet- what has the Western world done about this? No action means it is being condoned. More effort will be put into the theft of a bootleg copies of Top Gun then billions of dollars of aviation IP with significant, irreversible consequences.

Just like the space shuttle had a window when it could blast off to space, leaders have windows when they can take territory. Now, the space shuttle can't blast off to space, the window is closed. Leaders know the window is not always open to take territory. So, you take territory when the window is open.

The real estate scenario bringing the downfall of a regime/ nation is laughable at best. With monumental trade surpluses over many decades, the ability to absorb a real estate crash is in place.

I could write for hours but will stop here and say it's very ugly.
 
SC Maintenance said:
Well that is the question isn't it. Leaders/ dictators tend to start wars when things at home aren't going so well...
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I would have said no to the start of an invasion because that would be the equivalent of committing national suicide for China. Then you go and make a concise, logical, and accurate statement like that. I'm rethinking my position.
 
PimTac said:
With this point in mind Japan will have the edge as they have adopted automation and robots to a greater extent than China. That is in part because of the older demographics.

A typical Japanese restaurant, you order your food at a kiosk machine and pay with smartphone or card. A robot delivers the food. Some places have robotic cooks for certain tasks.
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Automation can be adopted everywhere if the price is right and the labor cost is right. I don't think Japan do it because it is cool but it is due to necessities. Younger generation from what I heard do not want to work as much as the older generation, and there are fewer of them in Japan thus they rely on import labor from South East Asia. Currently China is not importing 3rd world labor yet. They may eventually but Japan is probably 40-50 years ahead of China. So far China still has a lot of peasants working in factory for low paying jobs.
 
SC Maintenance said:
The context, and big difference is Japan and South Korea are not threatening to invade a neighboring country, or are they trying to be a world superpower. The context of the thread was in China's ability to successfully invade Taiwan.

Your correct in that Japan and South Korea have horrible demographics as well, so we will see how that plays going forward also - however neither appears to be threatening anyone.

Switching the conversation to an economic standpoint Japan and South Korea are high tech leaders, they designed stuff and shipped elsewhere to build - so their demographics didn't hurt them as much - up till now at least.

China's economy is built on foreign investment and cheap labor, and there loosing both at the same time. They have been trying to expand their capability but so far haven't shown any ability other than to copy whatever someone else made. Possibly that changes but it hasn't yet.
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I'd stay away from the politics and military aspects of this to avoid getting this thread locked. If you want my opinion you can PM me.

Economy wise, Japan and S Korea are about 60 and 30 years ahead of China. They too started as building cheap knockoff and then gradually move to high quality stuff and finally design their own. They also relied on foreign investment to begin with and then gradually switch to their own. Taiwan is next, China will be there eventually as well, then it would be Vietnam after that, and who knows what's after Vietnam.
 
Dave Hess said:
“The context of the thread was in China's ability to successfully invade Taiwan.”

Whats the possibility of the happening ?
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Trav said:
I would say it is a certainty the question is only when.
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This is historic data from the past based on one of the general back in the 80s, one of the eight big one who found PRC back then. Basically what would likely happen was, they believe it would take PRC about 50 years to catch up to the economy power of ROC (Taiwan) and once caught up, you don't need to invade by force, you can get them to join back because it is a "better deal" for them than being an "independent" or "rouge" nation.

However, Taiwan's economy went through the roof since that statement was made and therefore GDP per capita is way higher now. It is no longer a dirt poor nation in a warzone so it is very difficult for them to downgrade themselves to merge back to China, by force or by their own free will.

So, I think it would likely mean they will never be invaded but rather, PRC will have to wait till they become a bigger super power than US for that to happen. So, I don't know, maybe another 100-200 years? Nobody can predict that far into the future.
 
PandaBear said:
This is historic data from the past based on one of the general back in the 80s, one of the eight big one who found PRC back then. Basically what would likely happen was, they believe it would take PRC about 50 years to catch up to the economy power of ROC (Taiwan) and once caught up, you don't need to invade by force, you can get them to join back because it is a "better deal" for them than being an "independent" or "rouge" nation.

However, Taiwan's economy went through the roof since that statement was made and therefore GDP per capita is way higher now. It is no longer a dirt poor nation in a warzone so it is very difficult for them to downgrade themselves to merge back to China, by force or by their own free will.

So, I think it would likely mean they will never be invaded but rather, PRC will have to wait till they become a bigger super power than US for that to happen. So, I don't know, maybe another 100-200 years? Nobody can predict that far into the future.
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PB,

Our observations, views, assessments, and life experiences conclude at very different timelines, purposes, justifications, and end-states. You are very respectful, and I want to do the same, so I will leave it at that.
 
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PandaBear said:
Economy wise, Japan and S Korea are about 60 and 30 years ahead of China. They too started as building cheap knockoff and then gradually move to high quality stuff and finally design their own.
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Not quite historically accurate. Japan industrialized yes with investment from US and England after being forced out of isolation in the 1870's. Then again after WW2 using US investment. South Korea was similar after WW2. Never did they wonder around the world stealing others intellectual property, and never was it based primarily on super cheap labor and globalization. Perhaps you have heard of Dry Cells, or cassette tapes, or general Anesthesia things these two countries invented on their own and shared with the world - to name just a few.

US manufacturers did move production to these countries in the 60's and 70's - primarily because they followed new high tech manufacturing techniques that improved productivity and quality - mostly invented by Americans but which American companies refused to adopt due to hubris so the engineers who invented them took those ideas to Asia.

How all this makes a difference to China's demographics or ability to invade another country, I honestly have no idea.
 
buster said:
Things are not looking as good for China long term. Their demographics are bad.
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China's demographics are certainly better than the USA's.

PandaBear said:
So, I think it would likely mean they will never be invaded but rather, PRC will have to wait till they become a bigger super power than US for that to happen. So, I don't know, maybe another 100-200 years? Nobody can predict that far into the future.
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Not only will the USA not be a superpower 50 years from now, but it will be unrecognizable in numerous ways 50 years from now. Due to changing demographics and the effects that come with it.
 
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