Industry is ahead of CAFE Curve?

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EPA Says Industry Ahead of CAFE Curve
Originally Posted By: WardsAuto
CAFE requires each automaker’s sales-weighted fleet, including light trucks, to achieve an average fuel economy of 35.5 mpg (6.6 L/100 km) by 2016 and 54.5 mpg (4.3 L/100 km) by 2025. As of June, UMTRI reports a 25.5 mpg (9.2 L/100 km) average for all light vehicles sold in the U.S., up 5.4 mpg (2.1 km/L) since October 2007. Olechiw says nearly 35% of ’14 vehicles in the U.S. already meet the 35.5-mpg standard for ’16.
 
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Originally Posted By: Miller88
I'm not sure if we'll ever get to the average of 50MPG, though.
The cars may not look quite the same or weigh 4000lbs+, but I don't think 50mpg is too much of a stretch technically. What would a plug-in diesel Prius do today? 60-70-80 mpg? I don't know all the CAFE calcs for a plug in vehicle. Eventually aerodynamics will finally trump styling for most cars, along with the demise of silly wide tires. Self driving and drafting and automated efficient traffic management could take care of another 5-20% Personally I'd rather have super efficient appliance type vehicles, if it saves me significant money to do other things or get other fun toys.
 
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With the interesting stuff in the wings, like the 3.2L EBDI engine GM has been working on, and the 2.8L E85 fueled inline 4 banger that Cummins has recently announced they have been testing, getting the vehicles up to CAFE standards might not be as bad as it seems. When I can get a semi truck, with 80,000 lb to average 8 mpg, with some owners even beating that mpg number, it is not unrealistic to think that if they applied some of the same concepts to the autos and pickups, that meeting the higher CAFE standards is very doable. They just have to pull their collective heads out of where they sit and get away from naturally aspirated engines. That is sooo old school. The Cummins 2.8L E85 offering is really interesting. It reaches 450 lb of torque at 2800 RPM, much more and at a lower RPM than most small V8's. And it knocks the socks off of them in mpg as well. The GM 3.2L EBDI engine, also using E85, produces the same HP and Torque as the 6.6L Duramax Diesel and gets better mpg than it also. No telling what these folks also have in the R&D pipeline that might just do the trick nicely.
 
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Originally Posted By: IndyIan
Originally Posted By: Miller88
I'm not sure if we'll ever get to the average of 50MPG, though.
The cars may not look quite the same or weigh 4000lbs+, but I don't think 50mpg is too much of a stretch technically. What would a plug-in diesel Prius do today? 60-70-80 mpg? I don't know all the CAFE calcs for a plug in vehicle. Eventually aerodynamics will finally trump styling for most cars, along with the demise of silly wide tires. Self driving and drafting and automated efficient traffic management could take care of another 5-20% Personally I'd rather have super efficient appliance type vehicles, if it saves me significant money to do other things or get other fun toys.
The Mirage can easily get 50MPG and it's not a hybrid. It is an appliance for sure.
 
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Remember that the CAFE numbers are a bit higher than the mpg numbers used today; they were adjusted down because the original numbers were virtually impossible to match in real world driving conditions.
 
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Mercedes C class diesel hybrid that they won't sell in the states already meets 2025 standards. http://ecomento.com/2013/12/16/mercedes-confirms-hybrid-plug-hybrid-versions-2015-c-class/ Lots of talk of them selling it but I doubt it until they are forced to. Higher fuel prices are helping this as well, consumers want to save money and buying less fuel is a great way to do it. Fuel needs to stay at the slightly annoying price level to help this change along.
 

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Did a quick look, and was reminded that E85 vehicles get a a 6.67x boost in mpg. If a vehicle gets 15mpg on E85 and 25mpg on E0, then it counts as 62.5mpg for CAFE. How that is I don't understand; and there are other limits (see wikipedia).
 
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IMHO, a 54.5 mpg corporate average is NOT possible, at least not with any vehicles that anyone will actually want to buy and drive for a price that the average worker can afford. Keep in mind that for every vehicle built and sold that "only" gets 44.5 mpg, they will have to build and sell one that gets 64.5 mpg. 1/2 ton pickups will cease to exist, if you need a truck it will be a 3/4 ton or nothing (they are not figured into the CAFE ratings), and you can bet your butt that they will be ungodly expensive. I know that the car industry earns "credits" for doing other desireable things (like building ULEV vehicles, electric vehicles, and vehicles that are E85 capable), even so, this mandate is not going to be technically feasible in only 10 years time unless the manufacturers can figure out a way to alter the laws of physics! The federal government will have to back off on the 54.5 mpg CAFE requirement or they will put the entire car industry out of business and we will all be walking.
 
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Originally Posted By: wag123
they will put the entire car industry out of business and we will all be walking.
That's exactly what they want anyway ...
 

supton

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Originally Posted By: Miller88
The same E85 that takes more than a gallon of fossil fuel to produce?
I don't know if it's that bad, but yeah. That idiotic. But since this is true, every flex fuel truck is already past the target!
 
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As mentioned above, Ethanol in our fuel dilutes our personal results. However, standardized gasoline is used for EPA MPG testing.
 
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Originally Posted By: supton
Originally Posted By: Miller88
The same E85 that takes more than a gallon of fossil fuel to produce?
I don't know if it's that bad, but yeah. That idiotic. But since this is true, every flex fuel truck is already past the target!
Ford's 5.0V8 is flex fuel I believe.
 
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With all of the goofy loopholes in the regulations, they will have no problem meeting the 55mpg standard.
 

supton

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Originally Posted By: whip
With all of the goofy loopholes in the regulations, they will have no problem meeting the 55mpg standard.
That is what I'm thinking. 55mpg sounds bad, but it looks like trucks ironically meet their target. Thus nothing to worry about.
 
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Originally Posted By: supton
Originally Posted By: whip
With all of the goofy loopholes in the regulations, they will have no problem meeting the 55mpg standard.
That is what I'm thinking. 55mpg sounds bad, but it looks like trucks ironically meet their target. Thus nothing to worry about.
It does seem the EPA has a soft spot for pickups... And the bigger the better. http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/10/how-cafe-killed-compact-trucks-and-station-wagons/
 
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Originally Posted By: wag123
IMHO, a 54.5 mpg corporate average is NOT possible, at least not with any vehicles that anyone will actually want to buy and drive for a price that the average worker can afford. Keep in mind that for every vehicle built and sold that "only" gets 44.5 mpg, they will have to build and sell one that gets 64.5 mpg. 1/2 ton pickups will cease to exist, if you need a truck it will be a 3/4 ton or nothing (they are not figured into the CAFE ratings), and you can bet your butt that they will be ungodly expensive. I know that the car industry earns "credits" for doing other desireable things (like building ULEV vehicles, electric vehicles, and vehicles that are E85 capable), even so, this mandate is not going to be technically feasible in only 10 years time unless the manufacturers can figure out a way to alter the laws of physics! The federal government will have to back off on the 54.5 mpg CAFE requirement or they will put the entire car industry out of business and we will all be walking.
Or sell enough plug in hybrids or electric cars to offset it. Or simply do what the Italians do and lie...*cough* Ferrari.
 
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Originally Posted By: Miller88
The same E85 that takes more than a gallon of fossil fuel to produce?
Initially maybe. Not even close today. There have been so many technological advances in the last decade at least that have significantly trimmed any fuel costs and other thing related to ethanol production and corn production in general. The amount of corn yields have exploded in the last decade on a per acre basis, using less fuel to do it. There are no ethanol subsidies any more so it has to stand on it's own and the producers have to sell their product at the market rate. While it may be mandated in areas of the country, it still has to make it on a market rate basis such as the Chicago Board of Trade commodity pricing. If it cost more than a gallon of fuel to make a gallon of ethanol, the producers would be going broke. And since only a net 18% of the corn crop in the U.S. is used for ethanol production, it is disingenuous to make assumptions based on all corn production in the U.S. How did I get the net 18% figure? 20% of the U.S. corn crop is ever targeted to human consumption. Of the 80% that is left, 40% of that goes to the ethanol refinery facilities. Of the corn that goes there, 35% of it is returned to the normal feed and product channels. Corn oil, high protein feed supplements, etc. In the end, only roughly a net 18% of corn is used solely for ethanol production. And it will not increase unless the government lifts the cap on total ethanol production from corn, which is set now at 14 billion gallons per annum. The industry is producing around 13.7 Billion now. no real room to grow further production.
 
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Originally Posted By: TiredTrucker
And it will not increase unless the government lifts the cap on total ethanol production from corn, which is set now at 14 billion gallons per annum. The industry is producing around 13.7 Billion now. no real room to grow further production.
The EPA's mandates concering ethanol, corn or otherwise, are not caps. They are the minimum gallons the EPA wants to see used. 13.7 billion gallons is the market, it is not supporting the EPA mandates. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-10/epa-considers-u-s-ethanol-mandate-cut-amid-complaints.html
Quote:
A proposal from the agency would cut the mandate to 15.21 billion gallons for renewable fuels in 2014 instead of the 18.15 billion gallons established by a 2007 law, according to an internal proposal provided to Bloomberg. The agency would call for the use of 13 billion gallons of conventional corn-based ethanol and 2.21 billion gallons of advanced biofuels such as biodiesel, down from 13.8 billion gallons and 2.75 billion gallons respectively this year, it said.
Quote:
The 2007 law mandates the use of 14.4 billion gallons of corn-derived ethanol in 2014 and 15 billion in 2015.
Ed
 
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