I sold all my stocks and bonds today.

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Not accounting for inflation:
  • Crash of 2008 Took 5 years to recover on the S&P
  • Crash of 2000 took 6 years to recover on the S&P, and took the nasdaq 15 years.
  • Crash of 1929 took 25 years.
Take 1929 out (way too many structural changes since then) and its pretty easy to see if you have 5 or more years, stocks is the best way to go. They really are safe at 5+ years out. Think about it, since the '29 crash almost 100 years ago, the two WORST examples are basically 5 year dips. The rest of the corrections and bear markets recover usually in 6-24 months.
 
Take 1929 out (way too many structural changes since then) and its pretty easy to see if you have 5 or more years, stocks is the best way to go. They really are safe at 5+ years out. Think about it, since the '29 crash almost 100 years ago, the two WORST examples are basically 5 year dips. The rest of the corrections and bear markets recover usually in 6-24 months.
Those are nominal - not adjusted for inflation. Second, your assuming your options were the stock market or a coffee can. So assuming you invested in T-bills your maybe 6 - thats best case, of the best example.

You also conveniently ignored from 66-92 - flat. While CD's and money markets were paying 10+% during much of that. So vis-a-vis huge loss.

So, post war there were 30 years that were pretty bad (compared to risk free returns and inflation) and the last 30 years were very good. The 30 years before that were also pretty bad. There are additional off shore examples. Nikkei has never come back in real terms. 40 years.

Its easy to make things good if you pick the proper end points. Unfortunately you can't pick your lifetime end points, and you never know the start and end ahead of time - hindsight only.

I really don't care how others invest. Like I said, I am fully in equities, I just dislike the propaganda that doesn't match reality.
 
Those are nominal - not adjusted for inflation. Second, your assuming your options were the stock market or a coffee can. So assuming you invested in T-bills your maybe 6 - thats best case, of the best example.

You also conveniently ignored from 66-92 - flat. While CD's and money markets were paying 10+% during much of that. So vis-a-vis huge loss.

So, post war there were 30 years that were pretty bad (compared to risk free returns and inflation) and the last 30 years were very good. The 30 years before that were also pretty bad. There are additional off shore examples. Nikkei has never come back in real terms. 40 years.

Its easy to make things good if you pick the proper end points. Unfortunately you can't pick your lifetime end points, and you never know the start and end ahead of time - hindsight only.

I really don't care how others invest. Like I said, I am fully in equities, I just dislike the propaganda that doesn't match reality.
I didn't "conveniently ignore" anything. The topic was safety of stocks 5+ years out. In most every case, I stand by that.
It was not intended to be a comparison to T-bills, off shore investments or anything else. Please read what I wrote accurately.
 
I didn't "conveniently ignore" anything. The topic was safety of stocks 5+ years out. In most every case, I stand by that.
It was not intended to be a comparison to T-bills, off shore investments or anything else. Please read what I wrote accurately.
I wrote a significant amount of historical record, simply to give the discussion some context. You literally picked one part of the record to meet your narrative.

Your point is based on the last two S&P500 downturns 5 years is good, so we can ignore everything else?

Possibly we never see another nominal decline in our lifetimes, given central banks can print as much as they want?
 
I would suggest to forget theories, forget emotion, and just look at the facts.
It is hard. I’m still well invested in the market but for people getting out I can’t say that I blame them or it’s a wrong decision and I wouldn’t say it’s on emotion unless of course they’re using the election as a reason.

The NASDAQ and S&P 500 is up 25% this year that is pretty significant historically.
I would suggest that historically at some point there will be a correction if one hasn’t already started.
As I previously post that I thought about it myself at about the same time or before, the OP did however, he had the guts to close out his positions and I didn’t.
I certainly can’t fault taking profits or just a little bit of a breather after such a run up.

So now I’m running on a hope and prayer as I watch the value of my huge gains very slow slowly go down. All I’m saying is there is nothing wrong after such a significant jump in my eyes anyway of turning those unrealized gains into realized gains.

I’m still in great shape. I’m just hoping that the rally continues and there is a significant move upwards before inauguration day, I might close out my positions in my spec roth
account. Possibly even my 401(k) just to take a little rest.
 
I would suggest to forget theories, forget emotion, and just look at the facts.
It is hard. I’m still well invested in the market but for people getting out I can’t say that I blame them or it’s a wrong decision and I wouldn’t say it’s on emotion unless of course they’re using the election as a reason.

The NASDAQ and S&P 500 is up 25% this year that is pretty significant historically.
I would suggest that historically at some point there will be a correction if one hasn’t already started.
As I previously post that I thought about it myself at about the same time or before, the OP did however, he had the guts to close out his positions and I didn’t.
I certainly can’t fault taking profits or just a little bit of a breather after such a run up.

So now I’m running on a hope and prayer as I watch the value of my huge gains very slow slowly go down. All I’m saying is there is nothing wrong after such a significant jump in my eyes anyway of turning those unrealized gains into realized gains.

I’m still in great shape. I’m just hoping that the rally continues and there is a significant move upwards before inauguration day, I might close out my positions in my spec roth
account. Possibly even my 401(k) just to take a little rest.
I've not been one to consider the highs my money. It's just a number until I sell.
 
I wrote a significant amount of historical record, simply to give the discussion some context. You literally picked one part of the record to meet your narrative.

Your point is based on the last two S&P500 downturns 5 years is good, so we can ignore everything else?

Possibly we never see another nominal decline in our lifetimes, given central banks can print as much as they want?
Sigh.

1) Like everyone else here, I responded to a topic, it was not presented as all inclusive to everything that was previously mentioned.
2) Ignore everything else? What? I never said or implied that. Nor did I ever say a 5 year downturn was "good". In fact it was presented as the opposite, the likely worst case.
3) Nothing I said connected to central banks printing money, nor am I advocating for that in any way. Different subject.

Accurate reading and comprension matters! BYE.
 
I think that by mid Spring 2025 we will better know where things stand, and if the bull rally will resume. In the meantime, my IRA in parked in a a Morgan Stanley fund of short term US Treasury bills, currently yielding about 4.3%
 
The one thing many of you guys aren't doing is having physical assets other than the house you reside in.
Such as?

This thread was about the original poster, selling all those stocks and bonds from his IRA.

It’s financial discussion, not talking about what one might, or might not, have stock piled, what other physical assets might exist.
 
The one thing many of you guys aren't doing is having physical assets other than the house you reside in.
I will say this. One of my older friends wanted to buy gold, but was going to buy it from a place that would "store" it for him.

I convinced him that was a fraud. They would take his money and buy nothing. It was a Ponzi scheme that would disappear with everyone's cash. Told him that if he wanted gold, to buy Krugerrands, and bury them somewhere secure that he had access.

a Krugerrand contains one troy ounce of gold. 40 coins would be 40 ounces..

but Astro 14 is correct. This discussion is about stocks and bonds. Not other kinds of investments, such as Gold, or Beanie Babies. :)
 
Not accounting for inflation:
  • Crash of 2008 Took 5 years to recover on the S&P
  • Crash of 2000 took 6 years to recover on the S&P, and took the nasdaq 15 years.
  • Crash of 1929 took 25 years.
I'm told that the often stated "25 year recovery" after the crash of '29 is only true if you don't include dividends, which were more like 4 - 5% in those days. Dividends would make a huge difference.

I've never done the math myself.
 
I'm told that the often stated "25 year recovery" after the crash of '29 is only true if you don't include dividends, which were more like 4 - 5% in those days. Dividends would make a huge difference.

I've never done the math myself.
Yes but now your into complex math involving dividends, inflation, and comparing it to the risk free rate, not money in a drawer.

Market peaked around $331 in 1929. It crashed in 1932 and It didn't get back to 331 until 1954.

Of course, if you include dividends its less, but then you need to count inflation. Inflation between 1929 and 1954 was about 50%, most of it during WW2. So now your a few years longer.

Then, Am I comparing it to holding my money in a coffee can, or did I put it in some sort of interest bearing account? Usually you would use the "risk free rate", or the US 10 year. No idea what the 10 year yield was in 1930 or if a 10 year even existed?

Anyway its not really likely we would see this scenario again anyway. My point was simply to point out that people like to say that equities only go up. But in the last 100 years, there have been massive peaks and massive crashes, and all things in between. It really wasn't that long ago. 1929 was 95 years ago - less than a very old person.
 
But in the last 100 years, there have been massive peaks and massive crashes, and all things in between.
We've been through the '87, '08 and '00 crashes. And we're still 70% in equities. We've done very well with them.

Truth be told however, although I'm retired, we don't live off investment income so our "daily bread" is not at risk. I'm not so sure I'd be 70% in equities if it was. There could be a very long recovery after any crash - and the next one is probably overdue.
 
We've been through the '87, '08 and '00 crashes. And we're still 70% in equities. We've done very well with them.

Truth be told however, although I'm retired, we don't live off investment income so our "daily bread" is not at risk. I'm not so sure I'd be 70% in equities if it was. There could be a very long recovery after any crash - and the next one is probably overdue.
So funny thing - I was only a couple years out of college in 1999 but I managed to save up $2000 (in addition to my 401K) and proudly put it in the "Janus mercury Fund" as a Roth. The fund was supposed to invest in the "best and most stable tech stocks". A year later it was worth $600.

I left the money in it. It was my inspiration to try to manage my own money and stop trusting the wall-street grift. They eventually closed the "Mercury Fund" and transitioned it to some other fund. That account is now worth $8500. Inflation is about double over that 25 years, so my money has doubled again. However the fund is up 33% this year alone - so even just a year ago it was no great shakes. In the grand scheme of things $8500 to me now is meaningless. But I sure could have used that $2000 in 2002 when my first daughter was born. Money was quite tight back then.

Even at my age I don't think I have another 25 years to sit tight. The Mercury fund was worth the loss - in educational value.
 
You mean rental properties ?

I do own a 4 unit apartment complex in Grandview, OH. Older, brick, very nice shape. I have a property management company manage it and have little to do with it. Income wise it hasn't generated anything yet as it had a new roof and parking lot last year. I want to keep the property until I retire, selling each unit as a condo.
 
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