I know... I just did that
Seriously... I am very grateful to have learned how to interpret those forecast models...
In winter time it is actually harder than this hurricane circumstance... Way harder in fact at times...
Case in point... Last December we had a potential snowstorm in my area... However right where I am located it was a total coin flip what precipitation was going to happen... Either a fair amount of snow or a little snow turning into rain... When I got up that Sunday afternoon... 3 inches of snow and snowing hard... I laughed. We got 6 inches... Only 15 miles southeast of me... 0 snow. I knew that was a extremely difficult forecast because the Weather Prediction Center had the chance of 1 inch or more of snow in my area at 40-50 percent... While at the same exact time they also had my area in a 10-20 percent chance of 4 inches or more of snow... I have never ever seen those perameters cross over in that way before... Never. I knew between that and the GFS and NAM models it was a true coin flip as to what would happen in my area, Gloucester county, Surry county, Isle of Wight, Mathews county and northwest York county and northwest Newport News... And I was proven right about that part... Now that was a tough forecast.
Seriously... I am very grateful to have learned how to interpret those forecast models...
In winter time it is actually harder than this hurricane circumstance... Way harder in fact at times...
Case in point... Last December we had a potential snowstorm in my area... However right where I am located it was a total coin flip what precipitation was going to happen... Either a fair amount of snow or a little snow turning into rain... When I got up that Sunday afternoon... 3 inches of snow and snowing hard... I laughed. We got 6 inches... Only 15 miles southeast of me... 0 snow. I knew that was a extremely difficult forecast because the Weather Prediction Center had the chance of 1 inch or more of snow in my area at 40-50 percent... While at the same exact time they also had my area in a 10-20 percent chance of 4 inches or more of snow... I have never ever seen those perameters cross over in that way before... Never. I knew between that and the GFS and NAM models it was a true coin flip as to what would happen in my area, Gloucester county, Surry county, Isle of Wight, Mathews county and northwest York county and northwest Newport News... And I was proven right about that part... Now that was a tough forecast.
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