The weatherman can't get the weather right on a 3 day forecast so what makes anyone think they can predict, accurately, 4-6 months away? The weather will do what it will do when the time comes. The only way to really know what the weather will do is look out your window.
Hoping you really love winter...
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Hmmm... been a hot summer here (still is hot) and leaves aren't falling.. What part of MI do you live in???
And I agree, way to early to predict that.
Originally Posted By: Pop_Rivit
One thing I've learned is not to put much faith into long term weather predictions. After all, these are the same folks that have trouble with 3 or 4 day forecasts. Now that the weather folks have their new buzzword "polar vortex" they're using it every chance they get. The weather folks also have lots of pretty maps and lots of technology to augment what boils down to nothing more than a guess.
After this many years I've seen hot summers followed by every type of fall and winter weather imaginable. I've also seen cool summers followed by every type of fall and winter weather imaginable. I've seen winters that have snow on the ground by the end of October, and winters with virtually no snow all season.
My wife and I enjoy winter and the snow. It's a chance to get out on the bike trail with our snow shoes and see all the wildlife that takes over when people aren't around. It's also great exercise-the cold works us harder when we are out in it.
I've prepared for winter exactly the same way every year-prepare for the worst and hope for the best. One thing I won't do is let it worry me.
Originally Posted By: NHHEMI
The weatherman can't get the weather right on a 3 day forecast so what makes anyone think they can predict, accurately, 4-6 months away? The weather will do what it will do when the time comes. The only way to really know what the weather will do is look out your window.
Originally Posted By: ClutchDisc
Hmmm... been a hot summer here (still is hot) and leaves aren't falling.. What part of MI do you live in???
And I agree, way to early to predict that.
Originally Posted By: thunderfog
Originally Posted By: NHHEMI
The weatherman can't get the weather right on a 3 day forecast so what makes anyone think they can predict, accurately, 4-6 months away? The weather will do what it will do when the time comes. The only way to really know what the weather will do is look out your window.
Originally Posted By: Jarlaxle
WHAT summer?! It's 66 degrees, down to 53 last night, low tonight is 55. We haven't HAD summer this year!
I have not used my central A/C much this summer, my bedroom window AC unit has done most of the work.
Obligatory:
Originally Posted By: NHHEMI
The weatherman can't get the weather right on a 3 day forecast so what makes anyone think they can predict, accurately, 4-6 months away? The weather will do what it will do when the time comes. The only way to really know what the weather will do is look out your window.
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I don't recall last winter being that bad. Snowed a few times, got cold a couple of times, but other than the typical winter blues I didn't think much of it.
But I think I'll go back to looking at snow tires. Again. That reminds me, I oughta look and see if the snowblower still starts. Heck, didn't even use it last year! That's how mild I thought it was.
Originally Posted By: supton
I don't recall last winter being that bad. Snowed a few times, got cold a couple of times, but other than the typical winter blues I didn't think much of it.
But I think I'll go back to looking at snow tires. Again. That reminds me, I oughta look and see if the snowblower still starts. Heck, didn't even use it last year! That's how mild I thought it was.
If you think your weatherman can't predict, you need a better weather guy. The hacks on TV are just for ratings and that's why it's always a crisis.
The guy I follow is a meteorology professor at a local college. No drama, just the scientific facts and a weather forecast that is more often right (or close enough) than wrong! Not sure if he's thrown his hat into the ring for the winter yet.
Originally Posted By: grampi
Originally Posted By: supton
I don't recall last winter being that bad. Snowed a few times, got cold a couple of times, but other than the typical winter blues I didn't think much of it.
But I think I'll go back to looking at snow tires. Again. That reminds me, I oughta look and see if the snowblower still starts. Heck, didn't even use it last year! That's how mild I thought it was.
Originally Posted By: itguy08
If you think your weatherman can't predict, you need a better weather guy. The hacks on TV are just for ratings and that's why it's always a crisis.
The guy I follow is a meteorology professor at a local college. No drama, just the scientific facts and a weather forecast that is more often right (or close enough) than wrong! Not sure if he's thrown his hat into the ring for the winter yet.
I love snow, I just hate what salt does to cars and the way no one else seems to know how to drive in the snow.
Originally Posted By: grampi
There was a bit of exaggerating in my post about the lack of ability to make accurate predictions, but I was dead serious that NO ONE can accurately predict how bad the winter will be...
Absolutely true. Even the largest supercomputers do not have enough power to account for all the variables in weather.
I'll be thinking about you poor fellas while I'm at the beach!
Forecasters can't even get the weather for 3 or 4 days from now correct.
Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8
Absolutely true. Even the largest supercomputers do not have enough power to account for all the variables in weather.
I'll be thinking about you poor fellas while I'm at the beach!
Unless I visit Florida, 68-70F water doesn't scare me!The problem with forecasting is lack of input. The equations that generate the various forecast models need to be "started" with observational data. There is barely decent coverage at the surface over land, and very little to almost none over the oceans. Off the surface? Well, you get a weather balloon about every 300 miles twice a day. Very poor resolution. Thus, the output is going to struggle.
It's like HDTV. It's pretty much worthless without the HD receiver. If you don't have the HD signal, you get the same old grainy picture as we did with the digital signal before HD. That's our current model output.
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