Have we reached the ceiling in improvents to PCMO?

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Originally Posted by Mad_Hatter
Originally Posted by aquariuscsm

I agree. Building an all electric grid completely replacing petroleum seems impossible.

What exactly makes it seem impossible? I can already drive from one end of my state to the other in an EV; charging stations are fairly ubiquitous here in all but the most rural of areas. If there's a will, there's a way...


With the first successful internal combustion engine dating back to around 1859 to the present day,petroleum is pretty much what the world runs on. None of us here will ever see the end of petroleum in our lifetimes. As big as Texas is,I wouldn't be able to make it from my house to my best friend's house in an electric vehicle under a single charge.
 
Originally Posted by aquariuscsm
With the first successful internal combustion engine dating back to around 1859 to the present day,petroleum is pretty much what the world runs on. None of us here will ever see the end of petroleum in our lifetimes. As big as Texas is,I wouldn't be able to make it from my house to my best friend's house in an electric vehicle under a single charge.

Texas doesn't have charging stations? And agreed, the internal combustion engine isn't going anywhere anytime soon but that doesn't preclude the development and proliferation of EV.
 
Originally Posted by Mad_Hatter
Originally Posted by aquariuscsm
With the first successful internal combustion engine dating back to around 1859 to the present day,petroleum is pretty much what the world runs on. None of us here will ever see the end of petroleum in our lifetimes. As big as Texas is,I wouldn't be able to make it from my house to my best friend's house in an electric vehicle under a single charge.

Texas doesn't have charging stations? And agreed, the internal combustion engine isn't going anywhere anytime soon but that doesn't preclude the development and proliferation of EV.


The only place I ever notice them is at the really high end shopping malls.
 
Originally Posted by Mad_Hatter
Originally Posted by aquariuscsm

I agree. Building an all electric grid completely replacing petroleum seems impossible.

What exactly makes it seem impossible? I can already drive from one end of my state to the other in an EV; charging stations are fairly ubiquitous here in all but the most rural of areas. If there's a will, there's a way...

Sure you can do it when electric cars make up less than 1% of car on the road. How is the grid gonna support millions of EVs when they aren't expanding the grid?

1+1=2
 
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Originally Posted by Speak2Mountain
Will new and future tech cause improvements in PCMO's to slow or stop?


you're asking this question a forum dedicated the motor oil, so the responses aren't surprising.

I think reality is a bit different, and finished lubricant manufacturers realize that development of new ICE technology is already slowing (or completely stopped, in the case of some manufacturers)--as is the demand for new PCMO's.

People who run businesses aren't as emotionally attached to things like people who spend their time on internet forms, so my guess is that many of the big lubricant manufacturers are already making plans on how to stay relevant as things change, and they will likely maximize their existing technologies while they can. Spending a lot developing new PCMO's doesn't like the right play to me.

So yes, I think you will see developments in PCMO's slow significantly, and then just fall to boutique companies.
 
Originally Posted by hatt

Sure you can do it when electric cars make up less than 1% of car on the road. How is the grid gonna support millions of EVs when they aren't expanding the grid?

1+1=2


with all due respect, I think you're asking the wrong question...

it's not a matter of what exists right now, it's a matter of "where are developmental resources being spent". Auto manufactures can sell their current ICE tech in its current form for certain period of time. No one is saying electric cars are going to take over tomorrow. But they're going to take over eventually. It's a question of "when", not "if". All of the major OEM's are shifting development resources to electric. This isn't flying cars, this is reality.

Sure combustion engine cars will be produced--on a large and decreasing scale--for the next several years. But it's a contracting business, and the the shrinking development resources will mean that the technology will likely not be too much different than it looks like currently.
 
Originally Posted by Direct_Rejection
Ceiling ?
Not at all.
Think price point.
We will move towards very thin, very expensive motor oil.
I am investing in Tungsten futures.




Why tungsten? I don't think they have a futures market in that either.
 
I think technology builds on itself. A better widget helps you design a better thingy, which helps you build a better whatchamacallit, etc. Which is a roundabout way of saying that I think there are still improvements to be made in off-the-shelf, affordable motor oils. Keep in mind that SN plus and D1G2 are relatively new specs.
I agree that everything will eventually change over to EVs, which obviously means the death of the mass-produced and mass-consumed ICE, but that's going to take a long time. We still have plenty of oil supply and plenty of "public servants" to discount global... well nevermind.
 
Originally Posted by Speak2Mountain
Will new and future tech cause improvements in PCMO's to slow or stop?


I think the oil improvement technology curve is pretty asymptotic. As oil viscosity gets thinner and thinner it's going to be the anti-wear and anti-friction additives that become the main focus, if they haven't already.
 
Originally Posted by hatt
Originally Posted by Mad_Hatter
Originally Posted by aquariuscsm

I agree. Building an all electric grid completely replacing petroleum seems impossible.

What exactly makes it seem impossible? I can already drive from one end of my state to the other in an EV; charging stations are fairly ubiquitous here in all but the most rural of areas. If there's a will, there's a way...

Sure you can do it when electric cars make up less than 1% of car on the road. How is the grid gonna support millions of EVs when they aren't expanding the grid?

1+1=2

You're assuming that the "grid" won't get expanded (stay static). I see charging stations at my local Wally's now. They're at Walgreens and hospitals and so on. The private sector will play a big part in scaling things up so you can one day travel from Vancouver BC to LA on electric...then LA to Miami and so on. The major arterials of the country will see it first probably because the traffic volume can support private sector investing. The Feds will likely have to be responsible for extending EV reach into rural America. It won't happen overnight but it will happen.
 
Originally Posted by aquariuscsm
Originally Posted by Mad_Hatter
Originally Posted by aquariuscsm

I agree. Building an all electric grid completely replacing petroleum seems impossible.

What exactly makes it seem impossible? I can already drive from one end of my state to the other in an EV; charging stations are fairly ubiquitous here in all but the most rural of areas. If there's a will, there's a way...


With the first successful internal combustion engine dating back to around 1859 to the present day,petroleum is pretty much what the world runs on. None of us here will ever see the end of petroleum in our lifetimes. As big as Texas is,I wouldn't be able to make it from my house to my best friend's house in an electric vehicle under a single charge.



This.

I like EVs and greatly admire the innovation from companies like Tesla, but thinking manufacturers will have an only EV line-up within the next 10 years is wishful thinking, same with the EU banning ICE vehicles. The average vehicle age in the US alone is something like 11 or 12 years old, that right there should tell you the percentage of people who can afford a new EV. Also the infrastructure to support them is just not good enough unless you are in a major city, which most of the land in this country is not. There are still places where range anxiety with GAS powered cars is an issue, never mind EVs. I'm guessing the EU is planning on using electric semi-trucks and planes?

Aren't there still brown outs in certain areas of Cali during the summer because too many people are using their A/C? What happens when there is an environmental disaster (hurricane, flooding, etc) that impacts the grid and electric vehicle charging? Unless solar and wind power charging options are widely implemented, I think it will be awhile before we see only EVs. Just to run more power for a data center in one of our buildings (there is already a power run and smaller data center in the same building) took months of planning and government red tape before anything happened.
 
Originally Posted by Mad_Hatter
Originally Posted by aquariuscsm
With the first successful internal combustion engine dating back to around 1859 to the present day,petroleum is pretty much what the world runs on. None of us here will ever see the end of petroleum in our lifetimes. As big as Texas is,I wouldn't be able to make it from my house to my best friend's house in an electric vehicle under a single charge.

Texas doesn't have charging stations? .


Texas has charging stations, they dispense a liquid based on gallons.
 
Originally Posted by Mad_Hatter

You're assuming that the "grid" won't get expanded (stay static). I see charging stations at my local Wally's now. They're at Walgreens and hospitals and so on. The private sector will play a big part in scaling things up so you can one day travel from Vancouver BC to LA on electric...then LA to Miami and so on. The major arterials of the country will see it first probably because the traffic volume can support private sector investing. The Feds will likely have to be responsible for extending EV reach into rural America. It won't happen overnight but it will happen.

I'm not assuming anything. Show me the plans for all the new power plants we're going to need to support a hundred million electric cars. Many places can barely support the electrical loads they have right now.
 
Originally Posted by Speak2Mountain
Will new and future tech cause improvements in PCMO's to slow or stop?


There will always be new challenges because engine will try to squeeze extra something (power, drain interval, fuel economy) and oil is always a cheap way to band-aid a limitation.

The trend toward 0w16 and 0w12 means soon the oil will need to be extra low noack to last, that likely means going back to PAO, huge sump to allow burn off, or some sort of magic potion.

The EV mandate is probably going to be geo fenced in specific cities, so most cars will still have gas engine but running EV mode in certain area (i.e. residential zone, inner city in traffic jam, etc etc), or pay a "fee" like how toll road works. Man I hate toll road, it is like a tax but you got to be realistic about it. In other word, every car has to be a hybrid, and range will no longer be a problem unless you are completely EV.
 
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Out and about in my work truck today, seeing all the cars,18 wheelers, trains,airplanes,four twenty-plus gas pump convenience stores per intersection,etc,there's no way we'll ever go to an all electric world. Civilization as we know it would come to an end without petroleum.

An all electric world only exists in science fiction novels.
 
Originally Posted by 4WD
What new vehicle does not have electric power steering?


Very few of them. I've seen a failed steering angle sensor send a 2008ish Ford escape to the junkyard.
 
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