GTL/Group III+ - When?

[buster]

http://www.oilanalysis.com/learning...sp?articleid=422&relatedbookgroup=OilAnalysis

Only a matter of time I would think that many of the oil companies start using these base oils. It will be interesting to see if Mobil goes in this direction being they have only used Group IV/V. If they match the performance of Group IV, I don't see why they wouldn't use them at some point.

http://theoildrop.server101.com/cgi/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=4;t=000530

quote:

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By 2007 Fischer Tropsch base oils (FTBOs) should emerge as the next quantum leap in base oil quality. These oils should have higher VIs than PAOs and outperform PAOs and existing Group IIIs in most respects. Because Fischer Tropsch projects are driven by environmental and crude oil production incentives, the volumes of FTBOs produced may greatly exceed the demand for Group III and PAOs. Kline & Company estimates that FTBO supply will swell to 10MM MT, or about 30% of the entire base oil market by 2015.

When FTBOs begin to appear later in this decade, they should first displace high-priced PAOs and Group III oils. However, as volumes exceed about 4MM MT1, they should also begin to displace high-cost Group I and Group II base oils. Therefore, if FTBO projects proceed as planned, existing Group III producers may need to shift to lower cost Group II to stay cost competitive.

Correspondingly, any new base oil producer will be emphasizing cost-competitive products, probably Group II, to survive in the post-FTBO market. Or, more generally, high-cost producers may be squeezed out regardless of their quality leaving only the most cost-competitive
manufacturers.

In any event, the customer will be the ultimate winner. The appearance of high-quality, low-cost base oils will be a windfall to customers who continue to see lubricants exceed their expectations. And as high quality base oils emerge in all regions of the world, although perhaps for different reasons, we may be witnessing the beginning of the globalization of the lubricants business.

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Some have suggested esters are the future of motor oils, but more and more it looks like GTL is the future.

 

[Thermactor]

Better and cheaper? More competition? Good news!

 

[Tom NJ]

Hi Buster,

GTLs will likely fall between PAOs and GRP IIIs in both performance and price. I would expect the oxidative stability to be similar to PAOs, and VIs and volatility perhaps more like higher olefin PAOs, but pour points closer to GRP IIIs. Production cost is projected to be competitive with GRP IIIs, but where they will be priced will depend on perceived market value once they become widely available later this decade.

The driver for GTL plants is the monetizing of stranded gas reserves - it is easier to transport liquids than gases - and the main output will be fuel. They will be true synthetics, i.e., "a complex compound by the combining of two or more simpler compounds, elements, or radicals." They will probably take market share from both PAOs and GRP IIIs, but I expect be more of a challenge to the GRP IIIs. I doubt they will offer any meaningful performance boost to motor oils.

 

[MC5W20]

It looks like more R&D is needed for the additives. I wonder if this stuff will give new meaning to word semi-synthetic in the product offering of the motor oil companies.

 

[bruce381]

""GTLs will likely fall between PAOs and GRP IIIs in both performance and price.""

from What a major that is building plants now told me the performance will be higher VI than PAO with as good cold end perfromance and using basicly "burned off" none revenue gas as a feed stock price to produce will be lower than a GPIII or PAO But after all the costs for MFG plants selling cost maybe more then GPIII but LOWER than PAO depending on market demand.

IMHO I think GTL will beat both in price and performance GPIII and PAO in afew years.

bruce
bruce

 

[TooSlick]

I think a better question is if the savings from GTL will be passed on to the unknowing consumer...

The GP III situation should be the first clue.

You don't think the majors might try to maximize their profits and continue to charge PAO prices?

TS

 

[Nickdfresh]

quote:

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Originally posted by TooSlick:
I think a better question is if the savings from GTL will be passed on to the unknowing consumer...

The GP III situation should be the first clue.

You don't think the majors might try to maximize their profits and continue to charge PAO prices?

TS

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Yes, unfortunately, they will.

 

[buster]

Thanks Tom!