"Gas" Station of the future....

[Win]

Sounds daunting, but if there are wasteful government subsidies to be had, and money to be made, it will happen.

When Henry made the Model T, what was the motor fuel infrastructure then? Virtually nonexistent all the way from production, through refining, and eventual retail sales to the motorists.

At least we sorta have roads now. They couldn't even say that, back then.

At least in North America, we have such vast quantities of natural gas and petroleum that it's hard for me to see much merit in creating an all new infrastructure system, just to appease coastal handwringers.

 

[OVERKILL]

Using that Aussie calculator, which I believe uses Shannow's figures: For a good-sized roof in my area, it shows space for 4.96kW, and the ability to produce 22.77kWh per day. That's 705kWh a month, or about 50kWh shy of what I use presently. I do not run A/C and I heat with gas. For Ontario, the production figure would also be significantly less. Add 264.6kWh a month on top of that for our Tesla charging and there's no way I could operate my house and charge an EV off solar+storage with my roof.

A local industrial solar install (more efficient than rooftop) produces 14,300MWh a year with a 10MW installed capacity. That breaks down to 3.92kWh per kW of installed capacity, or, applied to our earlier rooftop calculation, gives us a more realistic 19.44kWh per day for Canada. Assuming even less efficiency for rooftop, we''ll settle on 19kWh a day.

So let's come up with a hypothetical scenario here based on some generous numbers and our Tesla consumption average from above. We will use wholesale prices with no feed-in tariffs, since the Ontario MicroFIT program ends this year.

Monthly usage: 1,015kWh
Available Installed solar capacity: 4.96kW
Actual installed solar capacity: 4.87kW (using this kit )
Monthly solar production: 574kWh (based on 18.5kWh per day, adjusting down to the 4.87kW figure)
Cost of solar panels, installed: $8/WUSD as per this source which is $10.20CDN right now.

Scenario #1: Grid tied, no storage
Cost of solar panels (installed): $50,000CDN (assumes no borrowing costs)
Wholesale rate paid: $0.07/kWh (this is what Australia dropped down to, roughly, when they cancelled their feed-in tariff program)
Solar generation: 574kWh
Utility power purchased: 441kWh
Average utility rate: $0.12/kWh (average-peak)

Result:
Delivery charge: $35.00
Regulatory charges: $4.00
Solar panels: $208.33 (our $50K broken over 20 years, paid monthly)
Solar profit: -$40.18
Utility cost: $52.92
Total: $260.07/month


Scenario #2: Grid-tied, total storage
Cost of solar panels (installed): $50,000CDN (assumes no borrowing costs)
Cost of battery bank: $7,700CDN (assumes no borrowing costs)
Wholesale rate paid: $0.07/kWh
Solar generation: 574kWh
Utility power purchased: 441kWh
Average utility rate: $0.06/kWh (100% off-peak)

Result:
Delivery charge: $35.00
Regulatory charges: $4.00
Solar panels: $208.33 (our $50K broken over 20 years, paid monthly)
Battery bank: $64.17 (our $7,700 broken over 10 years, paid monthly)
Solar profit: -$40.18
Utility cost: $26.46
Total: $297.78/month


Scenario #3: Standard Utility (no solar or batteries)
Utility rate $0.12/kWh (average)

Result:
Delivery charge: $70.00 (approximate)
Regulatory charge: $4.00
Utility cost: $121.80
Total: $195.80/month

Now, we can play around with the per kWh cost and make it more "Europe", which would result in a significant shift in the above numbers. Our 1,015kWh would cost $375.56 in electricity alone in Germany for example. Even more in Denmark.

 

[Merkava_4]

Originally Posted By: Garak
I'm not even checking, Merk. If you got to 5 minutes, you wasted 5 minutes of your life, and I'm not wasting the time to fast forward, even.


What the . . . Who hacked into Garak's account ?

 

[Garak]

When have I ever enjoyed perpetual motion delusions?

 

[SHOZ]

Honda EVs to charge in 15 minutes starting in 2022

Quote:
There are a number of charging "breakthroughs" under development in the world of electric vehicles. Some seem more realistic than others, especially when you factor in costs, but they depend on a number of factors. Battery density, materials, charging output and onboard charging capability are all variables at play, and automakers, tech companies and universities are among the entities racing to advance EV energy technology past the fabled "tipping point" when they offer more advantages than internal combustion cars across the board. According to a report from Nikkei Asian Review, Honda has its own leap forward in charging on the horizon, saying it'll whittle charging time down to 15 minutes by 2022.

The report says that Honda will launch a number of EVs that year capable of adding about 150 miles of range in 15 minutes. To do this, the automaker will offer new batteries capable of taking advantage of ultra-fast chargers that we'll begin to see open up between now and when these new cars become available. Japan expects 350-kW chargers to launch in 2020, up from the 150 kW that Japan's fastest chargers currently offer.

 

[pandus13]

Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Honda EVs to charge in 15 minutes starting in 2022

Quote:
There are a number of charging "breakthroughs" under development in the world of electric vehicles. Some seem more realistic than others, especially when you factor in costs, but they depend on a number of factors. Battery density, materials, charging output and onboard charging capability are all variables at play, and automakers, tech companies and universities are among the entities racing to advance EV energy technology past the fabled "tipping point" when they offer more advantages than internal combustion cars across the board. According to a report from Nikkei Asian Review, Honda has its own leap forward in charging on the horizon, saying it'll whittle charging time down to 15 minutes by 2022.

The report says that Honda will launch a number of EVs that year capable of adding about 150 miles of range in 15 minutes. To do this, the automaker will offer new batteries capable of taking advantage of ultra-fast chargers that we'll begin to see open up between now and when these new cars become available. Japan expects 350-kW chargers to launch in 2020, up from the 150 kW that Japan's fastest chargers currently offer.


uuoh,...
couple of those and a hot summer night (a lot of AC use), HMMMMM

I wonder what they will do to the preferred/usage rate system.....

 

[OVERKILL]

Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Honda EVs to charge in 15 minutes starting in 2022

Quote:
There are a number of charging "breakthroughs" under development in the world of electric vehicles. Some seem more realistic than others, especially when you factor in costs, but they depend on a number of factors. Battery density, materials, charging output and onboard charging capability are all variables at play, and automakers, tech companies and universities are among the entities racing to advance EV energy technology past the fabled "tipping point" when they offer more advantages than internal combustion cars across the board. According to a report from Nikkei Asian Review, Honda has its own leap forward in charging on the horizon, saying it'll whittle charging time down to 15 minutes by 2022.

The report says that Honda will launch a number of EVs that year capable of adding about 150 miles of range in 15 minutes. To do this, the automaker will offer new batteries capable of taking advantage of ultra-fast chargers that we'll begin to see open up between now and when these new cars become available. Japan expects 350-kW chargers to launch in 2020, up from the 150 kW that Japan's fastest chargers currently offer.


150 miles in 15 minutes sounds a heck of a lot more viable than 500 miles in a minute though, LOL

Using our Chevy Volt example, if it gets 2.9 miles per kWh, that's 51.7kWh for 150 miles of charge. 51.7kWh of charge in 15 minutes requires 206.8kW, which one could delivery with a 750V circuit @ 275A if my calculations are correct.

 

[Nick1994]

Originally Posted By: pandus13
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Honda EVs to charge in 15 minutes starting in 2022

Quote:
There are a number of charging "breakthroughs" under development in the world of electric vehicles. Some seem more realistic than others, especially when you factor in costs, but they depend on a number of factors. Battery density, materials, charging output and onboard charging capability are all variables at play, and automakers, tech companies and universities are among the entities racing to advance EV energy technology past the fabled "tipping point" when they offer more advantages than internal combustion cars across the board. According to a report from Nikkei Asian Review, Honda has its own leap forward in charging on the horizon, saying it'll whittle charging time down to 15 minutes by 2022.

The report says that Honda will launch a number of EVs that year capable of adding about 150 miles of range in 15 minutes. To do this, the automaker will offer new batteries capable of taking advantage of ultra-fast chargers that we'll begin to see open up between now and when these new cars become available. Japan expects 350-kW chargers to launch in 2020, up from the 150 kW that Japan's fastest chargers currently offer.


uuoh,...
couple of those and a hot summer night (a lot of AC use), HMMMMM

I wonder what they will do to the preferred/usage rate system.....
A/C use during the night is a bit less than during the day, so charging a car will probably break even with day usage.

So, day time most A/Cs are cranking out in the evening, at night maybe 40% of the neighborhood has A/C running at a given moment and only some have electric cars, it'll probably even out IMO

 

[SHOZ]

I would imagine too that the utilities will use the EV batteries that are at rest for backup storage.

 

[Shannow]

Originally Posted By: SHOZ
I would imagine too that the utilities will use the EV batteries that are at rest for backup storage.



That's what the technologists say...but what's it worth to the vehicle owner ?

limited range becomes even more limited when they use your power.

Li Ion batteries have a levelised cost of storage of 25c/KWh cycles (lifecycle cost per Lazard), so if they give you a free KWh, they should pay you 25c to extract that for grid stabilisation. Before they compensate you for the reduction in range, plus good will.

You would have thought that this would have been built into the Teslas that the above is modelled on...but it isn't.

Other manufacturers (e.g. Porsche) are planning backfeed into your home to curtail load during peak.

 

[SHOZ]

With the Net Metering currently with my coop they would pay you at least the wholesale rate, same as what I pay.

How many small EVs would just be sitting in the garage most of the time?

 

[Shannow]

Originally Posted By: SHOZ
With the Net Metering currently with my coop they would pay you at least the wholesale rate, same as what I pay.


But that's unfair, as they are reducing the life of your battery every cycle...Lazard's lifecycle analysis of Li Ion is that you need 25c/KWh just to cover the lifetime life expenditure on top of Nett to break even.

 

[SHOZ]

Originally Posted By: Shannow
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
With the Net Metering currently with my coop they would pay you at least the wholesale rate, same as what I pay.


But that's unfair, as they are reducing the life of your battery every cycle...Lazard's lifecycle analysis of Li Ion is that you need 25c/KWh just to cover the lifetime life expenditure on top of Nett to break even.
That;s why I said "at least".

 

[OVERKILL]

Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
With the Net Metering currently with my coop they would pay you at least the wholesale rate, same as what I pay.


But that's unfair, as they are reducing the life of your battery every cycle...Lazard's lifecycle analysis of Li Ion is that you need 25c/KWh just to cover the lifetime life expenditure on top of Nett to break even.
That;s why I said "at least".


Well, if you get above wholesale, then you are introducing a rate subsidy, which will in turn drive up rates, just like the garbage we have going on here in Ontario

 

[SHOZ]

Originally Posted By: OVERKILL
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Originally Posted By: SHOZ
With the Net Metering currently with my coop they would pay you at least the wholesale rate, same as what I pay.


But that's unfair, as they are reducing the life of your battery every cycle...Lazard's lifecycle analysis of Li Ion is that you need 25c/KWh just to cover the lifetime life expenditure on top of Nett to break even.
That;s why I said "at least".


Well, if you get above wholesale, then you are introducing a rate subsidy, which will in turn drive up rates, just like the garbage we have going on here in Ontario

The current wholesale rate is $0.037 a kwh and has been for the last 4 or 5 years. Where they make their money is on the other charges. I would guess they would credit you for the kwhs to recharge vs what the took, minus the generation, transmission, and other charges. In Illinois we subsidize the nukes if you are one of their customers.

 

[OVERKILL]

Originally Posted By: SHOZ
The current wholesale rate is $0.037 a kwh and has been for the last 4 or 5 years. Where they make their money is on the other charges. I would guess they would credit you for the kwhs to recharge vs what the took, minus the generation, transmission, and other charges. In Illinois we subsidize the nukes if you are one of their customers.


I think you'll discover that if you subsidize your $0.037/kWh rate to $0.25/kWh to cover battery "wear and tear" it will have an overall impact on retail rates.

We've subsidized the living heck out of gas, wind and solar and it has had a pronounced impact on retail rates as penetration has increased. Solar's footprint is still relatively small, so despite its ridiculous subsidy, the overall increase to generation costs isn't massive. Wind and gas on the other hand, with wind's current average at $0.173/kWh and Gas at $0.18/kWh, have had a significant impact on overall generation costs, which in turn, gets passed onto consumers in increased rate costs.

If you have the consumption figures, you can do the math yourself if you wanted to play around with some approximated figures. It'll be a scale thing of course.

BTW, you say you subsidize the nukes, what's the rate paid to them? We pay ours $0.066/kWh, which is more than what we pay hydro-electric at $0.058/kWh, but cheaper than everything else by a rather wide margin. Of course a nuke has significant operating costs and that needs to be accounted for in their compensation, so it would be interesting to see how close or far off your rates paid to them are from ours.

 

[SHOZ]

For the most part Illinois electrical market is deregulated. I would expect them to eliminate any power cost adjustments, pay the net rate plus forgive the other charges they have for distribution for any power you use to replace what they took.

But my coop would be a ways from doing this as something like this would be in the urban areas.

 

[OVERKILL]

I just looked at your table.

OK, our retail rates include Generation and Transmission, these are a single separate charge on business bills called the "Global Adjustment", which, when combined with the wholesale rate give you the cost of electricity per kWh. Our wholesale rate is only around $0.015/kWh, it is the generation costs, which include the rate subsidies, that drive it up.

Using your table, your actual effective rate is $0.095/kWh, which excludes delivery (we also pay for that separately), base, tax...etc. It would be the generation cost portion of your bill that would go up with the rate subsidy, if it is executed in the same manner as ours. Our wholesale cost has actually tanked due to over-generation from intermittents, which causes us to sell to the US at $0.015/kWh or less at times, with the price often going negative. The issue is of course that through Generation Costs; through the Global Adjustment, we still pay the subsidized rate guaranteed to that generator.

 

[SHOZ]

My coop belongs to a nation wide coop for coops.

They buy or generate the power for distribution through Ameren who also is retail for the urban areas in most of Illinois. But the local coop has it's own distribution network fed by Ameren into the coops substations. So my guess is would be Ameren who would do this in Illinois.

 

[OVERKILL]

SHOZ:

You might find this helpful, this is from Ontario Power Generation:







As you can see, our wholesale price of electricity is ~$0.022/kWh. Now, hydro has become such an issue in the province that it has become a popularity problem for the government, essentially guaranteeing an unfavourable result for the present party in the next election. As a result, they've taken the 20 year Green Energy contracts and re-amortized them over 30 years and tacked this debt onto OPG's books. As a result, you can see the difference between the two tables, ES-1, which is from before this scheme, and ES-2, which comes after. So, our actual cost of generation is, as indicated in ES-1, $0.0845/kWh, giving us a total average cost of $0.1129/kWh. This has been reduced to $0.0976 presently, via the reduction of generation costs to $0.070/kWh.


Now, OPG must have gotten a rate increase for Darlington (our nuke presently being refurbished) as you can see the rate has gone up to $0.069/kWh for nuclear, and since that's an average that includes the $0.066/kWh paid to Bruce, OPG is receiving a fair bit more. Bruce will be receiving $0.077/kWh after their refurbishment is completed, which doesn't start for a number of years, and will be their fixed contract rate until the plant is slated to be retired in the mid 2060's.

The last table is particularly pertinent here, as it gives you a break-down of our generation costs and what percentage of that generation charge, the Global Adjustment, each represent. As you can see, whilst nuclear is 60% of our supply, it is only 40% of the cost. Contrarily, solar is only 2% of the supply but 14% of the cost.

That should at least give you an idea as to how a relatively low penetration of a given technology, paid a subsidy, can have an overall impact on generation costs, and subsequently rates.