Fictious email to top producing real estate brokers in the following areas:

[GON]

This is a fictional story- to demonstrate how the doom and gloom in real estate really is in itself fictional at today’s prices. Find me some home selling at 2018 prices, and in 2018 homes had seven to eight years of positive/ continual price appreciation.

Fictious email to top producing real estate brokers in the following areas:

Colorado Springs

Sierra Vista, AZ

El Paso, TX

Boise, ID

Butte Montana

Hot Springs, SD

My correspondence stated I am a cash buyer looking for a single-family home. I am able to close as soon as you can have the title company have the documents ready. I can waive inspection, appraisal, etc. I am willing to pay up the value of the home at January 2018 prices.

My guess is these top producers in these markets don’t have a single home to present to me. Not one. I used 2018 as a price point, as the single-family home market hit its MACRO low in the USA in 2010/2011, so 2018 would be seven-eight years of continual price appreciation.

 

[PF52]

Fictitious?

 

[PandaBear]

This is a fictional story-

The only thing non fictional you need to know is how much money was printed in the last few years. Unless you account for that everything else is worthless in argument.

It is a worldwide problem, not just US real estate.

 

[GON]

Fictitious?

PF52,

It is what the organizational I work for calls an exercise with injections. One is not actually doing the activity but is simulating the activity through acting as if one actually did it and trying to see with the outcomes would likely be.

And I think you are from Illinois if memory serves me correctly. I see house prices in Illinois are selling for more in SEP 2022 than AUG 2022. That is super impressive for a state that has had ten consecutive years of population losses. Also suggests the doom and gloom on single family homes prices may be far from accurate.

 

[GON]

The only thing non fictional you need to know is how much money was printed in the last few years. Unless you account for that everything else is worthless in argument.

It is a worldwide problem, not just US real estate.

PB,

Valid point. What role does currency devaluation play in prices.......

 

[PF52]

PF52,

It is what the organizational I work for calls an exercise with injections. One is not actually doing the activity but is simulating the activity through acting as if one actually did it and trying to see with the outcomes would likely be.

And I think you are from Illinois if memory serves me correctly. I see house prices in Illinois are selling for more in SEP 2022 than AUG 2022. That is super impressive for a state that has had ten consecutive years of population losses. Also suggests the doom and gloom on single family homes prices may be far from accurate.

I was just trying to understand your spelling.

 

[GON]

I was just trying to understand your spelling.

Maybe I should have listed fictional than fictitious. As is appearent in my posts, English is not my best subject, and I think a full disclosure is I have to work on all the papers I write.

 

[SeaJay]

IMO current market prices for homes in many, many markets is still higher than in 2018.

 

[GON]

IMO current market prices for homes in many, many markets is still higher than in 2018.

SJ,

From the data I am tracking, I can't find a single market as of SEP 2022, that has single family home prices lower than DEC 2021. And that is with a increase in mortgage rates from three percent in DEC 2021 to six percent in SEP 2022. And prices in DEC 2021 were at record highs.

 

[PandaBear]

PB,

Valid point. What role does currency devaluation play in prices.......

When money is worth less (not worthless), you would rather buy something that will hold its value in the long run against more money printing. The reason people pay more for the same products, and the reason interest rate is lowered (more money to be borrowed for the same interest rate and the same risk), and the reason more people can pay more for a home, and the reason home prices increase.

 

[ripcord]

As the old saying goes, markets take the stairs going up but the elevator down. In a year or two when interest rates have gone up another 3 percent, we can have this conversation again.

 

[GON]

As the old saying goes, markets take the stairs going up but the elevator down. In a year or two when interest rates have gone up another 3 percent, we can have this conversation again.

RC,

I understand. But looking at the single family home prices from 1975 to 1985, where mortgage rates went as high as 18 percent, not one year did single family home prices drop. Homes took a long time to sell during that period, but prices didn't go down.

I hope you are right, but the only historical data on the subject does not indicate a hard fall in single family home prices. I know, past performance does not guarantee future performance.

 

[97K15004WD]

With the dollar at .98 euro, you could buy much more house overseas versus two years ago. Dollar keeps getting stronger and stronger. Of the G7, only the UK hasn't recovered from the pandemic yet. Maybe look at costs in the G7 (minus the US) where the dollar goes a lot further now?