Brent Crude

[whizbyu]

How High Will Oil Prices Go This Year? | OilPrice.com

Oil prices are gradually nearing the $60 mark, and as COVID concerns ease, they could head even higher

oilprice.com

Why is there so much vagary with the explanation as to why oil prices are going up? There is the theory about OPEC closing the valves, and COVID cases dropping and that vaccines are going to make the economy boom etc. I read no logical explanation to oil price fluctuations.

 

[Zee09]

That's why they call it liquid gold

 

[Rmay635703]

I read no logical explanation to oil price fluctuations.

I don’t think I’ve ever read a logical explanation for crude price variation.

That said despite lock downs
driving is picking up amongst the
“I would never own a car” demographic
Due mainly to fears of public transport .

So let’s see
It’s winter +2
It’s a mild one -1
People are expected to drive more +1
Demand for plastic is up and recycling levels are at all time lows +1
Many wells have been capped due to lack of demand and future expansions have stopped +???

 

[doitmyself]

Here's a pretty good explanation: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-Oil-Will-Keep-Rising-In-2021.html

We cannot discuss part of it because it involves politics, but less production and more demand managed by changing global business and politics policies.

This forecast/guess predicts that prices will remain in the mid 50's through 2022: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46516

It could be worse.

 

[Taildragger]

Politics.

 

[skyactiv]

Hate to say it, the Corolla Hybrid is starting to look attractive.

 

[Barkleymut]

Our strategic reserves are filled to the brim ... at least thats what everyone was saying a few months ago when prices plummeted. I cannot imagine that we have used much of it so in theory we should have tons of supply. All I know is that I paid $1.80 / gallon last fall and it is now over $2.30/gallon..................

 

[tnt_motorsports]

crude is driven a lot by speculation, so with the executive order to cancel the pipeline prices are going up...

Just my $0.02

 

[AutoMechanic]

They are going up for reasons that can’t be mentioned here.

 

[Rmay635703]

Hate to say it, the Corolla Hybrid is starting to look attractive.

Even though it may not seem like much the $75 hybrid fee even at relatively high gas prices makes it hard to justify hybrid over a standard Corolla
making up the upfront cost + $350 extra title fee + increased insurance up front have a decades long payback

Considering a normal Corolla gets 40mpg and the hybrid 50mpg
Still takes a long time in miles to break even.
Just the fee alone buys 1000-2000 miles of extra fuel for the standard car on the highway.

I would say wait to see how things turn out before buying a hybrid, unless your not afraid of exchanging the car with another when the winds change again.

The only place most hybrids shine is in gridlock in a warm climate, personal experience is that hybrids loose a lot more economy in winter months than a standard car, repairs when they do happen are more costly and insurance is a lot higher

Food for thought

Here's a pretty good explanation: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-Oil-Will-Keep-Rising-In-2021.html

This forecast/guess predicts that prices will remain in the mid 50's through 2022: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46516

It could be worse.

I agree with your price assessment but the article you note is off base since the major players have had free reign to buy cheap mineral rights for over a year, yet had zero interest in buying prime oil producing land.

There simply isn’t much profit to be found for the next couple years

 

[Wolf359]

Fracking is also down and there's no money in new fracking even at the slightly higher price. Fracked wells don't last long so the ones already out there will dry out soon and no new ones. It's the usual boom bust cycle. Once it booms again, it will take a little while for production to catch up.