Average age for a car on the road equals average age for an EV battery to fail

[leadcounsel]

This is not an analysis. There is simply not enough data to do a proper analysis. In addition, products do not automatically fail at end of warranty. Tesla even offers warranty extensions, by the way.
If you can't measure it, it's not real. You are stating, with no data, that a battery will require replacement in 10 years. You also posted "They have been posted and discussed ad nasuem, and it's all out there if are receptive to views that counter your views and you care to get the information."

That's your best "business analyst" advice and analysis? That, "Since it hasn't happened yet, we cannot measure it, therefore it's unknowable and we have no idea." Um, sure. I guess I haven't died yet so there's just no way to know how long I can live. Maybe 400 years?

It turns out, science can determine the design lifespans of the components in battery packs with very good predictive ideas. Individual parts lifecycles, predictive modeling, internal stress tests in controlled environments which compress time thru hard use, etc. This battery technology is young but not new, and we have a pretty good idea of how long things will, indeed, last.

 

[JeffKeryk]

That's your best "business analyst" advice and analysis? That, "Since it hasn't happened yet, we cannot measure it, therefore it's unknowable and we have no idea." Um, sure. I guess I haven't died yet so there's just no way to know how long I can live. Maybe 400 years?

It turns out, science can determine the design lifespans of the components in battery packs with very good predictive ideas. Individual parts lifecycles, predictive modeling, internal stress tests in controlled environments which compress time thru hard use, etc. This battery technology is young but not new, and we have a pretty good idea of how long things will, indeed, last.

Yes, when you are making business decisions, you need data. You can use history to forecast, if the data is appropriate and you use proper statistical tools.FYI my career was in Predictive Analytics; I am pretty familiar with the topic. When you are presenting in the Board Room, you are betting your job on your analysis. And in Silicon Valley, they play hardball.

You have not backed up any of your statements. Then you result to arguing against the man.
I posted data on battery replacement.

 

[Skippy722]

Oh, okay. Only $2500 for a new Hybrid a battery around year 10. So, just the cost of installing a new ICE engine every decade. Face-palm.

We're also talking mainly of EVs, which around every decade need a new $15,000 battery.

Man I wish engine replacements were that cheap. I got quoted $3,500 to replace an engine in a 1995 Camry with a junkyard motor… in 2015. I’m sure it’d be even higher now.

 

[leadcounsel]

Yes, when you are making business decisions, you need data. You can use history to forecast, if the data is appropriate and you use proper statistical tools.FYI my career was in Predictive Analytics; I am pretty familiar with the topic. When you are presenting in the Board Room, you are betting your job on your analysis. And in Silicon Valley, they play hardball.

You have not backed up any of your statements. Then you result to arguing against the man.
I posted data on battery replacement.

I'm envisioning a Tesla board room where the CEOs are all sitting around talking with the engineers who, when asked how long their batteries will last, the engineers just shrug their shoulders. "We have no idea." LOL.

I work in an evidence based world. Evidence comes in many forms, to include predictive (it's an actual exception to the rules of evidence, called "habit evidence,") and other forms of evidence called "circumstantial," both allowable in court.

I, and others, have posted ample "predictive" and "circumstantial" along with plenty of other evidence on this and other discussions about the longevity of batteries from a myriad of sources. This includes, a direct quote from Elon Musk stating how long the batteries should last.

You might take it personal because of an apparent very emotional tie to EVs (based entirely on posts here), but to the contrary, my posts toward you are not personal and I am NOT "arguing against the man," I have personally presented the best available open source predictive evidence on how long these batteries are expected to last and the replacement costs. Tesla, as noted, apparently also shortened their warranties. Hmmm... maybe that means something and they know a few things.

 

[leadcounsel]

Man I wish engine replacements were that cheap. I got quoted $3,500 to replace an engine in a 1995 Camry with a junkyard motor… in 2015. I’m sure it’d be even higher now.

Wow, I just looked at some crate engine prices. The have doubled in 2 years since I last look. Holy smokes.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I'm envisioning a Tesla board room where the CEOs are all sitting around talking with the engineers who, when asked how long their batteries will last, the engineers just shrug their shoulders. "We have no idea." LOL.

I work in an evidence based world. Evidence comes in many forms, to include predictive (it's an actual exception to the rules of evidence, called "habit evidence,") and other forms of evidence called "circumstantial," both allowable in court.

I, and others, have posted ample "predictive" and "circumstantial" along with plenty of other evidence on this and other discussions about the longevity of batteries from a myriad of sources. This includes, a direct quote from Elon Musk stating how long the batteries should last.

You might take it personal because of an apparent very emotional tie to EVs (based entirely on posts here), but to the contrary, my posts toward you are not personal and I am NOT "arguing against the man," I have personally presented the best available open source predictive evidence on how long these batteries are expected to last and the replacement costs. Tesla, as noted, apparently also shortened their warranties. Hmmm... maybe that means something and they know a few things.

All opinion and you even make up stories. Weak. Certainly there are calculations based on existing data. But that does not mean batteries will all kick the bucket at 10 years. The truth is, we just don't know.
Here is a recent article from JD Power. The summary states, "No matter the model or manufacturer, all EV batteries last for 10-20 years. They gradually lose capacity, with some factors speeding things up, but you shouldn’t be too concerned."

 

[brianl703]

In short, the average cost to replace a Tesla Model 3 battery is $15000 including labor, Battery price ranges from $13500-14500 and for labor you can expect to pay anywhere between $1500-$3000

On a cost per kwh basis...that's much cheaper than the Toyota hybrid battery mentioned above.

 

[brianl703]

Also, I've yet to see an ICE engine installed for $2500. Not even a used one.

You live in a place where the dealerships charge $200 an hour for labor and where you rarely see any used cars less than 6 years old.

I am not surprised that you have never seen an ICE engine installed for less than $2500. I'll bet you've never seen (in person) a house that costs less than $750,000 either. (Around these parts, houses that cost $750,000 usually have over 3000sq ft and come with acres of land).

 

[andrew_j]

Hey, I bought a Betamax for $1200.00. Let me know when this all shakes out. I did my part.

Poor comparison because electricity is readily available to make an EV usable for average vehicle life. I think your statement would apply if using CNG for example.

 

[andrew_j]

It would be interesting to see average age on the road by area/zip code.

I rarely see cars over 12 years old in my area, most are in the 1-6 years old range.

12 year old+ cars are rarer in my area(coastal NH) however 6-10 years are prevalent beyond the 1-5 year range.

 

[Danno]

I live in a cold country - Canada - where EV adoption has been slower than the US. Price point, availability a couple of reasons for slower adoption.
Wondering if there is any data on if cold starts impact battery longevity. Talking 0 F or less, for weeks and months. Norway is ahead of Canada in EV adoption. Is there any info from Norway? Or is it too soon to tell?

 

[brages]

In an ICE car, you're constantly producing waste heat, so there's not a big efficiency hit to provide warmth. But the EV has to draw energy from the battery to stay warm.

I believe modern EVs have cooling and heating systems to keep the battery at optimal temperature at all times...

 

[JohnnyG]

Poor comparison because electricity is readily available to make an EV usable for average vehicle life. I think your statement would apply if using CNG for example.

Or Hydrogen.

 

[andrew_j]

I live in a cold country - Canada - where EV adoption has been slower than the US. Price point, availability a couple of reasons for slower adoption.
Wondering if there is any data on if cold starts impact battery longevity. Talking 0 F or less, for weeks and months. Norway is ahead of Canada in EV adoption. Is there any info from Norway? Or is it too soon to tell?

The adoptions seems high locally to me but that’s Quebec.

 

[Ws6]

This to me is why boring EVs that cost more than 20k make no sense. Buy one that performs like a Lamborghini, and then you've got yourself a proper value proposition.

 

[Ws6]

In an ICE car, you're constantly producing waste heat, so there's not a big efficiency hit to provide warmth. But the EV has to draw energy from the battery to stay warm.

I believe modern EVs have cooling and heating systems to keep the battery at optimal temperature at all times...

Ohohoho!

 

[Ws6]

Wow, I just looked at some crate engine prices. The have doubled in 2 years since I last look. Holy smokes.

Engines in cars Ive owned go for $15-20k+labor. A battery really doesnt stress me, especially given the 120k mile warranty, and the tens of thousands in fuel Im saving. No, if you're cross shopping cars like a Bolt or Camry, yeah, that can get dicy.

 

[2strokeNorthstar]

I'll be in the market for 15 year old EVs eventually. That way I get 6-8 years out of it. Currently everything I drive / ride is in the 20 year range.