I believe the average age for a car on the road these days is around 12 years old. Also, I believe the average age at which modern EV batteries will get bad enough to become nonfunctional is 10-12 years.
Correct, on both points. Prior to the boondoggle cash-for-clunkers which sent a lot of serviceable but somewhat inefficient ICE to early graves, along with all those spare parts, the average auto age was much higher I believe. It was a boondoggle as bad for the environment (terminating lifecycles prematurely representing resources going to landfills), and the taxpayers who are still paying for it, along with all the scams. Nevertheless, for an "average" of 12 years, there needs to be a lot of 20 year cars, some 25, and even 30 year old cars on the road. "12 years" is the bell curve peak. My vehicles are about 20 years old. I tend to see mostly 10-15 year old cars as the peak of the bell curve, however I do see some 30-40 year old vehicles and some new ones too.
Correct inasmuch as the articles I have read credibly state a owner can expect around 10-15 years on a battery, and replacements cost around $10-$20k. Further it is widely reported that EV repair costs are extraordinarily complex and high. So for anyone experienced in auto ownership, there comes a time when the vehicle is "totaled" due to high repair costs. Using the same bell curve, assuming EVs go to "early" graves around year 15, then naturally that bell curve peak for EVs will be around 6-7 years as the average EV age. This all, of course, could change with radical improvements in battery life and lowered size and costs. That will probably improve in the next decades.
Do you have the data showing EV batteries will last 10-12 years?
Yes, a number of tech oriented articles seemingly with high credibility.
But more important: With decades of life experiences, seeing thru corporate over-promises, living thru numerous financial collapses and tech bubbles bursting (almost universally the common theme is deception and fraud), and using a myriad of batteries in my lifetime that rarely life up to the projections, I believe my life experiences over some tech company illusory promises.
Simple hand tool lithium batteries are a great example. I have a Dewalt drill from probably 10-20 years ago. Both battery packs are shot. One is completely dead and the other very weak. Dewalt redesigned the battery fitment, to frustrate consumers. It's cost prohibitive to try to source a new "old design" battery, so I have a drill that is near useless and less expensive to replace, than get a new battery for. Meanwhile, I have my original corded Sears drill from 1992 that works perfectly, and a collection of garage sale corded drills that are 30-40-50 years old that work just as good as new.
Cellular phones and laptops are another example. These batteries never meet expectations, batteries get redesigned so they no longer fit, and the product then becomes disposable. That is the purposeful designed obsolescence of these EVs that people are foolishly demanding and transitioning to. Around year 10 - 15 these become too expensive to repair so they are disposed of in favor of new and better...
In other words:
