Automotive markets heading down after Sept

[Mr Nice]

Originally Posted by Lolvoguy
Originally Posted by Rmay635703
The bigger story is the sheer number of underwater auto loans and leases that are delinquent, the auto finance bubble is ready to blow.

Will be interesting times if nearly a 1/3 of cars in some markets need to be repro'd

While I totally agree with the number of delinquent loans, I don't believe the bubble will ever "burst".
Far too many other factors at play that will keep things moving along.


Factors like.... ?

 

[WhyMe]

Anyway to break it down by region? I don't see a slowing in the Seattle area

 

[JeffKeryk]

Tesla set another record, 97K cars delivered in Q3.
Tesla Q3

They would have sold more; demand is stronger than production.
Gigafactory... China market... Model Y... Europe...

 

[Ignatius]

Originally Posted by madRiver

September news:
Subaru breaks it 93 month sales streak of increases


For a little perspective during my three previous years of selling cars for Subaru, September has always been the best month of the year for me. September of 2019 did not go well for Subaru because their top selling product (in North America), the Outback, was affected by a stop sale that cut the rollout of the new 2020 model off at the knees. Had that not happened another record breaking month would be a forgone conclusion.

Still though, nearly 8 years of record breaking sales month after month for Subaru. I think they'll be just fine despite Jalopnik's overtures of a coming carpocalypse.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Tesla set another record, 97K cars delivered in Q3.
Tesla Q3

They would have sold more; demand is stronger than production.
Gigafactory... China market... Model Y... Europe...



Still fell short, just barely, of expectations. No worries though. Nothing new and we'll have to wait and see if they're making money.

 

[E365]

Ford Q3 2019
https://media.ford.com/content/dam/fordmedia/North America/US/2019/10/02/2019-sales-3q.pdf

GM Q3 2019
https://investor.gm.com/static-files/6ef138c6-0a6e-4833-8487-9985d1d9ca08

FCA Q3 2019
https://s3.amazonaws.com/chryslerme...inalPRFileos4e9fe2t5u8dmqufcidt2o0g0.pdf

Toyota Sept 2019

https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-motor-north-america-reports-september-2019-sales/

Honda Sept 2019

https://hondanews.com/en-US/honda-c...an-honda-reports-september-sales-results



————
Big/Interesting Movers:

Interesting the Ford Fiesta has been selling like crazy all year. Up 45% YTD. I would have thought it was all clearance/close out stock, but it appears the Cuautitlán plant that makes them for the US was still running as of Aug 1st. Haven't seen anything confirming they'd even stopped production yet. 🤷ðŸ¼â€â™‚ï¸

- Chevrolet Trax up 82% Q3 vs Q3 2018.
- Dodge Charger up 46% Q3 vs. Q3
- Bolt EV up 22% Q3 vs. Q3. 2020 gets more range (new battery chemistry). Hopefully they can keep it up.
- Prius down 27% YTD
- Lexus GS down 50% YTD

 

[Rmay635703]

Originally Posted by WhyMe
Anyway to break it down by region? I don't see a slowing in the Seattle area


I'm not sure you can "see it" I know someone who had a car repro'd then a few weeks later had another one that couldn't be paid for

 

[PimTac]

Originally Posted by Rmay635703
Originally Posted by WhyMe
Anyway to break it down by region? I don't see a slowing in the Seattle area


I'm not sure you can "see it" I know someone who had a car repro'd then a few weeks later had another one that couldn't be paid for




Regions can vary and it depends on the sources of information you access as well.

One example, the Seattle real estate market is declining but most people don't acknowledge that or recognize it. Travel fifteen miles in any direction and the market is stable for the most part though there are signs that it is slowing. Automobile sales can be finicky and tricky to interpret. A flood or hail storm in one area will spur new car sales for example. So there are a lot of variables to consider.

 

[SeaJay]

There are a ton of optioned out and higher end cars on the road these days. These are for the most part well built and many of these cars are going to last for many years to come. Absent some new & innovative "got to have it" features, a lot of folks will keep these cars for a long time.