And now it's here with a vengence because there was a sudden unforseen almost step function in air travel and other economic demand factors in conjunction with the long term making of a pilot shortage - basically a perfect storm to blow up the fragile system. A similar thing is happening in the big rig driver world. It's like the economy switch was turned on and went into turbo mode and the weakened supporting systems just can't react to the demand.
Unforeseen by many... certainly ignored by "conventional wisdom" and the financial press.
Except for one airline CEO in particular, who bet heavily on the "V-shaped recovery", and kept every pilot, and every airplane. In fact, that airline added 17 787s in 2020, during the worst air travel decline in history, and expanded orders to take delivery of 500 new airplanes over the next five years.
All the other CEOs ran for the hills, furloughing people, including pilots, shedding hundreds of aircraft at carriers like Delta and American, leading to an inability to respond to the demand that came roaring back.
A perfect storm, in which one airline has positioned itself, through orders and growth in pilot hiring and training, to seize opportunity while the rest of the industry floundered.
The pilot shortage has been brewing for a long time. We've talked about it in the industry and the company. Long before the pandemic, United anticipated the shortage, and was taking steps to address how it recruits, trains, and hires pilots. United Aviate was started before the pandemic.
We all knew the shortage was coming.
But most of the industry failed to plan, and the result is the melt-downs you see today. They have no way to bring on the pilot numbers they need, and they can't train their existing pilots fast enough.
