Another post about old tires

[stangguy]

Well, I am just gonna quit discussing this and just do what I want, which may or may not be to replace the tires. Possibly a newer set of used ones. But as my last word, what gets me, is that in my over 60 years of driving, and not knowing wether my tires were old or not, just what they looked like, the ONLY tires I EVER had go bad on the road were less than 2 years old. Oh, and yes, I would usually run tires down to 2/32, an sometimes even further. But what is wrong with 2/32, as that is what the all knowing manufactures recommend? Over and out.

 

[Wolf359]

Well, I am just gonna quit discussing this and just do what I want, which may or may not be to replace the tires. Possibly a newer set of used ones. But as my last word, what gets me, is that in my over 60 years of driving, and not knowing wether my tires were old or not, just what they looked like, the ONLY tires I EVER had go bad on the road were less than 2 years old. Oh, and yes, I would usually run tires down to 2/32, an sometimes even further. But what is wrong with 2/32, as that is what the all knowing manufactures recommend? Over and out.

Well it depends on the state you're in, but I think pretty much all of them have state laws that say when the tires are down to 2/32's they're considered bald and should be replace. But just like you're not supposed to run red lights or speed, people do drive around with tires with less than 2/32's worth of tread. But if you get into an accident and they measure them, then you'd probably be in trouble. Just because you can doesn't mean you should. Aside from the obvious issue with rain/snow, even in the dry, when driving with less than 2/32's of tread, you're more likely to get heat buildup and sudden tire failure and more likely to get flat tires as there's less tread to protect you from punctures.

As for your logic of it never happening to you, I suppose you never heard the phrase forewarned is forearmed. Just because it's never happened to you doesn't mean that it won't happen to you. As you can read in this thread, it's happened to other people. Do you think that all those accidents were the 2nd time and people ignored it the first time? Or was it their first time in a blowout? You theory would make sense if old tires only failed a second time on people and never the first. But of course that doesn't make any sense, there's always the first time for anything. And sometimes the last, like how many people don't survive their first heart attack, but that's like saying you're not going to do something about it til after your first heart attack.

And for the record, tires have had date codes since 1971 when they were mandated by law and some tires even before that but it wasn't required so you were basically clueless about date codes for some of the last 51 years.

 

[zzyzzx]

In Arizona the sun & heat are killer on tires. I treat them very similar to car batteries... best to replace on an accelerated schedule before you're stuck on the side of the road.

The OP doesn't live in Arizona.

 

[stangguy]

I know I said I was done responding, bt just one more thing, which I thought I touched on before. Since the only tires I have ever had blow out on the road for me were almost new ones, and no old ones, does that mean that the new tires are the most dangerous ones, or is it just it may happen to ANY tire new or old, so why worry. Oh, and I know people, in general seem to always want higher and higher speed limits, but personally, I would like to see the old 55mph national limit. Well, maybe raise it to 60 . They want the cars to get better and better gas mileage but keep making it even harder to drive slow and not practically get run off the road. I believe in the old slow and steady wins the race.

 

[krzyss]

What does prevent you from driving 55mph in rightmost lane?

Krzys

 

[Wolf359]

I know I said I was done responding, bt just one more thing, which I thought I touched on before. Since the only tires I have ever had blow out on the road for me were almost new ones, and no old ones, does that mean that the new tires are the most dangerous ones, or is it just it may happen to ANY tire new or old, so why worry. Oh, and I know people, in general seem to always want higher and higher speed limits, but personally, I would like to see the old 55mph national limit. Well, maybe raise it to 60 . They want the cars to get better and better gas mileage but keep making it even harder to drive slow and not practically get run off the road. I believe in the old slow and steady wins the race.

Your main problem is that you use anecdotal evidence instead of real world statistical data. Your modeling is only based on your own anecdotal data so it's not surprising that your conclusions will be false. Still the odds of it happening are still low so you may get away with using incorrect data for a while and believing that your conclusions have been validated. Correlation does not imply causation. I suggest further reading in logic and statistical analysis.

Correlation does not imply causation - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There's many reason that maybe you have had bad experiences with new tires. Maybe you only buy the cheap ones and those are the ones most likely to blow early, maybe the tire pressures are too high or too low initially. Hard to say without more data to validate your conclusions.

 

[Dave9]

^ There's also the reality that many different products have high infant mortality rates, due to a number of factors, some of which you touched on, then the mortality rate drops after a certain period of time, remains low but continues to climb as the product wears or ages.

Obviously there is a finite end to old tires, they WILL fail eventually so there is no argument not to get new tires before they do, even if you do then face the infant mortality issue with new tires.

The Bathtub Curve and Product Failure Behavior (Part 1 of 2)

This article provides an overview of how infant mortality, normal life failures and wear-out modes combine to create the overall product failure distributions. It describes methods to reduce failures at each stage of product life and shows how burn-in, when appropriate, can significantly reduce...

www.weibull.com