A few speculators dominate vast oil market

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Regulators had long classified a private Swiss energy conglomerate called Vitol as a trader that primarily helped industrial firms that needed oil to run their businesses.

But when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission examined Vitol's books last month, it found that the firm was in fact more of a speculator, holding oil contracts as a profit-making investment rather than a means of lining up the actual delivery of fuel. Even more surprising to the commodities markets was the massive size of Vitol's portfolio -- at one point in July, the firm held 11 percent of all the oil contracts on the regulated New York Mercantile Exchange.

The discovery revealed how an individual financial player had gained enormous sway over the oil market without the knowledge of regulators. Other CFTC data showed that a significant amount of trading activity was concentrated in the hands of just a few speculators.


The CFTC, which learned about the nature of Vitol's activities only after making an unusual request for data from the firm, now reports that financial firms speculating for their clients or for themselves account for about 81 percent of the oil contracts on NYMEX, a far bigger share than had previously been stated by the agency. That figure may rise in coming weeks as the CFTC checks the status of other big traders.

Some lawmakers have blamed these firms for the volatility of oil prices, including the tremendous run-up that peaked earlier in the summer.
 
Shocking, simply shocking
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Yep, and with the useage of "margins", they can control 11% of the market with 1% of the money.
 
One good deal after another. Wool must have been downsized.


..like unraveling a cable knit sweater that someone keeps knitting and knitting.... P-ee-Wee Herman
 
I've been making this very point for months. Where are all the people who claimed the run up in oil prices had nothing to do with speculation? Fools, they are.

I am surprised the CFTC actually did something. All it takes is a little effort to keep things honest and expose all the rats.
 
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All it takes is a little effort to keep things honest and expose all the rats.


I WANT THE TRUTH!!!!

YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!!
 
The CFTC is a rat..... like the term "internal investigation".

Next time I'm up on charges I'll tell the judge I went over everything I did and could find nothing wrong.
I suspended myself with pay, gave myself full back pay for unlawful arrest, and gave myself a promotion.
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Politicians and internal watchdogs can't rectify a problem....they ARE a problem.
 
Originally Posted By: bretfraz
I've been making this very point for months. Where are all the people who claimed the run up in oil prices had nothing to do with speculation? Fools, they are.



Of course it was speculators. But that's not the point because speculation is an *outcome* not a cause. Any central banker can create speculation by dropping real interest rates below zero. Wanna stop speculation in oil and commodities? Raise rates. Why hasn't the government done that when it's so easy? That is the real question you need to be asking. Find the truth to that, and a whole host of economic questions will be answered for you.

Funny thing about speculation - from 2000-2005, we had the biggest or*gy of speculation seen in a generation in housing. But nobody complained about speculation then - why, because people were getting "rich". Now that speculation is running a different direction, it becomes a "moral" problem. This is prostitution at its finest.
 
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But nobody complained about speculation then - why, because people were getting "rich". Now that speculation is running a different direction, it becomes a "moral" problem.


Agreed. We don't see the corruption of the process as long as it feels good. It's the same thing when I hear whining about bail outs. I didn't see any caution advised (or exercised) in the upswing and maturation of the disaster ..why whine about the crash.

"Hey, while I'm holding your beer ...can you go faster"?

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Call me a bit slow, but I don't see the impropriety of what Vitol did. Somebody needs to back up a bit and explain this to me. Like VeeDub said, people can speculate all they want, but investors run the risk of a bubble burst. Where does this go against supply-and-demand, which is what really drives price? I'm not arguing, I just truly don't understand.
 
All our problems with economic eddies and flows is like "valve float" in an engine that exceeds the sub components capability to cope with the inertia.

Economics is unthrottled and has few governors until it runs out of fuel. Humans have a fixed temporal base and can't just shovel more into the machinery. So you get bouts of acceleration and then pauses of collapse. Economics is into productivity and yield and doesn't know natural limits. That's why we have peaks and valleys. Quench and purge...wax and wane.

Just like diodes having capacitance when switching between forward and reverse bias ..some that have some ingenuity manage to use it to their advantage in the scheme(atic) of things.
 
maybe the losses to these speculators will teach them a lesson.
but they probably made out in the long run anyway.
the mee too guys that recently jumped on the bandwagon are counting their losses right now.
 
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maybe the losses to these speculators will teach them a lesson.


Did anyone learn any lessons?

During the 80's shop 'til you drop yuppie housing bust and S&L Crisis?
The 90's DOT.COM bubble?
The more recent new home start fiasco (a para S&L Crisis)?

There's one trend that I've noticed in a recurring theme in my life. By the time I get anywhere ..the party is already over. Economic savvy and skill is in the being there first ..and knowing when to call it a night ...leaving the intoxicated to be left holding the bag. That's the contemporary model for gain.

Luckily, I never really had the clout to navigate in those boom/bust enterprises.
 
Originally Posted By: Gary Allan

Economic savvy and skill is in the being there first ..and knowing when to call it a night ...leaving the intoxicated to be left holding the bag. That's the contemporary model for gain.



You got that right. But that is also a risky game. Most people that call one right early usually missed on 10 other calls. So at the end of the day, it is all speculation, isn't it?
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